Randy Shaw has an interesting article in today’s Beyond Chron arguing that Gavin Newsom is considering a run for Governor. Randy’s take is that there is a unique window in 2006 because the Democratic candidates are weak (Westly because he’s basically just some random rich guy who nobody much likes and Angelides because he’s too short and not WASPy enough), and because Schwarzenegger is not going to run for reelection.

Gavin Newsom fits the physical criteria for being elected Governor. His connection to San Francisco and his gay marriage stance separate him from being another boring moderate like Westly, and he has the touch of celebrity that would attract coverage from local media across the state.

So Newsom can potentially get the money he needs to win the nomination, and labor unions are unlikely to impede his success. But what about his support for gay marriage. Wouldn’t that be a fatal blow to a statewide Newsom candidacy?

Actually, it could be his biggest selling point. This is particularly true if the right-wing gay marriage constitutional ban is on the same June 2006 ballot, as Angelides, Westly and any other prominent Democrat would be joining Newsom in opposing the measure.

Even if a gay marriage issue were not preeminent next June, gay and lesbians across the state will be drawn to Newsom’s campaign. This grassroots activist base may be second in size only to labor, and will be highly motivated to send a message through a Newsom victory. Although many of these voters are progressives who would ordinarily be backing Angelides, Newsom’s support on their core issue will put this critical primary constituency in his camp.

In a three-way race with Angelides and Westly, an adequately funded Newsom campaign would have at least an equal chance to prevail. And if Governor Schwarzenegger follows the course most insiders predict and does not seek re-election, this puts whatever Democratic nominee in the driver’s seat to become the next Governor.

Clearly I am not hooked in with the same “insiders” as Randy, cause it’s the first time I’ve heard the speculation that Arnie’s not going to run. But I think that Schwarzenegger’s beatable. Randy makes a moderately convincing case that Gavin could, in fact, with the Democratic nomination. And, as I was speculating with some friends just last week, what else is he gonna do? Pelosi’s not going anywhere, and until there’s a Democratic president who appoints DiFi ambassador to something or other, there’s no office higher than the Mayor of San Francisco he can run for. So for his career, it might make sense.

Of course, while we’re speculating, we might as well take this to its logical conclusion and think about what would happen in San Francisco if Gavin were to win the Governorship. If I remember correctly, it means that the president of the Board of Supes becomes mayor. Say hello to Mayor Peskin! I’ll let you all speculate on who becomes District 3 Supervisor if that happens.